Creating a Blue Jays Top Prospect Uber-List

In my pre-spring training baseball boredom I decided it would be interesting to combine the various Blue Jays top prospects lists out there and aggregate them into one supremely authoritative super list. Because that how it works right? Probably not, but it should still be fun.

I do think that combining the rankings together should help smooth out some of the more extreme valuations and result in a middle-of-the-road consensus of sorts.

I used lists from TSN, Baseball Toronto, Prospects 1500, MLB Pipeline, Fangraphs and Prospects Live. I haven’t reproduced those original lists here, only the final aggregate version, because I don’t want to steal their thunder. They deserve the click if you’d like to check out their lists. I’ve linked the respective outlets’ lists above.

TSN, Baseball Toronto and Prospects 1500 were Top 50 lists and MLB Pipeline, Fangraphs, and Prospects Live were Top 30 lists. I made an aggregate Top 30 list from all six sources and a Top 50 from TSN, Baseball Toronto and Prospects 1500.

Fangraphs is the most unique and boldest of the original lists. For instance, they rank Gabriel Moreno 18th whereas on the aggregate Top 50 he’s ranked 41st. Their 30th ranked Emanuel Vizcaino doesn’t appear on any of the other lists at all.

Top 30

I averaged each player’s rankings from the six sources and took the top 30 player averages to create the aggregate list. Standard Deviation has been included to show the level of dis/similarity between the original lists. E.g., all six sources listed Guerrero Jr. as #1 (duh!) so SD is 0. Whereas, the lists differed greatly on the ranking of Adam Kloffenstein with an SD close to 8. SD will generally increase the further down the list you go.

Rank Name
Standard Deviation
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr 0.000
2 Bo Bichette 0.000
3 Danny Jansen 0.000
4 Nate Pearson 0.408
5 Kevin Smith 1.049
6 Jordan Groshans 1.033
7 Eric Pardinho 1.673
8 Sean Reid-Foley 1.633
9 Cavan Biggio 1.506
10 Anthony Alford 6.380
11 Hector Perez 1.366
12 Orelvis Martinez 2.483
13 T.J Zeuch 2.066
14 Adam Kloffenstein 7.969
15 Miguel Hiraldo 6.348
16 Billy McKinney 3.327
17 Griffin Conine 2.191
18 Trent Thornton 6.890
19 David Paulino 7.688
20 Reese McGuire 4.676
21 Rowdy Tellez 7.992
22 Logan Warmoth 6.890
23 Thomas Pannone 4.309
24 Santiago Espinal 5.428
25 Elvis Luciano 4.708
26 Leonardo Jimenez 5.612
27 Patrick Murphy 7.043
28 Forrest Wall 5.989
29 Chavez Young 3.920
30 Ryan Noda 3.619

Top 50

Same methodology as above except only the three Top 50 lists were factored in.

The top 30 of this list was quite similar to the one above. The only different name was Yennsy Diaz instead of Rowdy Tellez.

One wrinkle was the Russell Martin trade bringing Andrew Sopko and Ronny Brito into the organization. The Prospects 1500 list was released before this trade. So I, rather presumptively, assumed that Prospects 1500 gave them the same score as the average of the other two sources. If I hadn’t fudged it, they would have ranked far below where they should. Lesser of two evils.

Rank Name
Standard Deviation
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr 0.000
2 Bo Bichette 0.000
3 Danny Jansen 0.000
4 Nate Pearson 0.577
5 Kevin Smith 0.577
6 Jordan Groshans 0.577
7 Eric Pardinho 1.732
8 Anthony Alford 1.528
9 Sean Reid-Foley 1.155
10 Cavan Biggio 1.000
11 Hector Perez 0.577
12 Miguel Hiraldo 2.646
13 Adam Kloffenstein 1.000
14 Orelvis Martinez 3.512
15 T.J Zeuch 2.517
16 Billy McKinney 1.528
17 Griffin Conine 1.528
18 David Paulino 6.807
19 Reese McGuire 3.464
20 Thomas Pannone 1.528
21 Trent Thornton 9.644
22 Santiago Espinal 6.928
23 Ryan Noda 1.528
24 Logan Warmoth 10.536
25 Elvis Luciano 9.292
26 Patrick Murphy 19.553
27 Yennsy Diaz 8.505
28 Forrest Wall 13.051
29 Leonardo Jimenez 2.082
30 Chavez Young 4.000
31 Rowdy Tellez 7.234
32 Ronny Brito 1.732
33 Julian Merryweather 5.292
34 Samad Taylor 10.017
35 Jon Harris 3.606
36 Jonathan Davis 4.933
37 Andrew Sopko 8.021
38 Cal Stevenson 10.693
39 Chad Spanberger 16.462
40 Riley Adams 7.810
41 Gabriel Moreno 2.646
42 Max Pentecost 11.150
43 Alejandro Kirk 6.429
44 Justin Maese 8.737
45 Jacob Waguespack 7.550
46 Hagen Danner 7.000
47 Joshua Palacios 5.508
48 Alejandro Melean 7.506
49 Zach Jackson 2.082
50 Sean Wymer 6.351

Honourable Mentions:

Brock Lundquist
Maximo Castillo
Demi Orimoloye
Shawn Morimando
Kevin Vicuna
McGregory Contreras
Jackson McClelland
Reggie Pruitt
Otto Lopez
Javier D’Orazio
Zach Logue
Emanuel Vizcaino
Demi Orimoloye
Josh Winckowski
Dom Abbadessa
Kacy Clemens

One caveat to all this: different prospect lists have different philosophies behind them. Some focus on present value, some look more at potential, etc. It may not be fair of me to combine lists with different philosophies and objectives in mind. On the other hand, it may create a good balance between approaches. I think it worked out pretty well here but it’s up to you!

 

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